Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trades, but about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid is set to introduce a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4, which Hayes argues is only the first layer.
The real differentiator, he says, is the HYPE token, which allows users to profit directly from their platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market. The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion. Hayes' argument also highlights the geographical differences between the platforms, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints in Asia, where its user base is skewed.
In contrast, Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, not token incentives, making it the most direct test of Hayes' thesis.