As April comes to a close, bitcoin is adopting a cautious stance, trading at $79,707.35. However, historical data suggests that any downturns may be short-lived, potentially paving the way for an upward trend in the coming weeks.
Since 2013, May has typically been a positive month for the cryptocurrency, with seven out of 13 years seeing gains. The average return of around 8% indicates a bullish bias, albeit less pronounced than in months like October and November.
Following April's 10% increase, the broader uptrend is likely to persist, supported by similar seasonality in the S&P 500, which is nearing record highs. The back-to-back net monthly inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds, totaling over $1.8 billion this month and $1.32 billion in March, underscore strong institutional demand and reinforce the bullish outlook. Nevertheless, traders must monitor bond markets, where rising yields pose a challenge to risk assets. Analysts warn that the market is digesting the 'higher-for-longer' signal, and without a liquidity catalyst, bitcoin may remain range-bound.
Additionally, the risk of a global economic downturn, potentially triggered by the Iran war and energy market disruption, must be considered. Technical analysis suggests a bullish crossover, with the 50-day average poised to surpass the 100-day average, which could indicate further price gains if sustained.