The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique trend, with Bitcoin remaining stagnant despite fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, experiencing a mere 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability persisted even as Brent crude oil prices surged above $111 per barrel, following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump had instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the situation, Iran has stated that the country is on the verge of collapse, while Tehran has indicated that it may consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if Washington lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Among other major cryptocurrencies, Ether dropped 2.6% to $2,310, XRP fell 3.8% to $1.39, Solana declined 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shed 2.3% to $625. However, Dogecoin bucked the trend, rising 5.5% to $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to experience gains over the week.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress arises and capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calm is indicative of a shift in market structure. Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side.
He added that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than commonly perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to exit the market. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level that, if breached, could lead to a breakdown of the upward range that has held since late March, potentially paving the way for further declines. On the other hand, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin since February.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have since recovered 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices remain elevated near $111, exerting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave emerges. However, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could unfold as predicted.