The US-driven rally in April is losing momentum. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data.
This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time Bitcoin's price rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000. However, the premium peaked around April 22 and has been declining since. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are now paying less than the rest of the world, indicating they are either selling more aggressively or not participating in the market. On-chain data supports this narrative, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as Bitcoin traded near $78,000.
This realized loss is only recognized when coins are sold below their original purchase price. The significant spike near $6 billion at $78,000 implies that sellers were buyers at higher prices, likely between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, and are now using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than a reentry point.
The combination of these datasets indicates that US institutional buyers are slowing their bidding through Coinbase, while holders are increasing their selling activity. As of recent trading, Bitcoin was around $76,000. The key focus for traders now is whether the Realized Loss metric will continue to decline as the supply of underwater coins is worked through, with the reading already decreasing from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, suggesting the seller cohort is diminishing.