According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid is set to launch a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4, a proposal that enables event trading on the platform. Hayes believes that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which allows users to benefit from platform activity.
Hayes stated that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust technology infrastructure. Users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.
In contrast, Polymarket and Kalshi do not offer similar benefits to their users. The valuation of HYPE is around $38 billion, compared to the implied valuation of a potential $POLY token, which is around $14 billion.
However, pre-listing markets can be highly speculative and may not accurately reflect actual market demand. Geography also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia, while Hyperliquid has a strong user base in the region.
Kalshi, on the other hand, is a CFTC-regulated exchange that prioritizes compliance and licensing over token incentives, making it an interesting test of Hayes' thesis. The contrast between the three platforms highlights the different approaches to prediction markets, with Hyperliquid tying usage to a token, Polymarket potentially moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it altogether.