A new report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket indicates a significant shift in the prediction market landscape, transforming from event-driven bets to platforms characterized by daily user interaction. The trading volume on Polymarket reached $25.7 billion in March, with data showing that users are engaging more frequently and participating in a broader range of markets, including crypto, sports, and politics, with over 1.29 million wallets active in the first quarter.
The growth is attributed to the frequency of trades rather than their size, with more than 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter, indicating the market's dominance by retail participants. According to Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's COO, 'prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions,' reflecting a behavioral shift towards more frequent, smaller trades.
Crypto serves as the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of initial activity, but as users become more active, their participation expands to markets tied to real-world events. The report highlights this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by major events but are becoming continuous systems where users regularly track and respond to changing probabilities. Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket, notes, 'we're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement,' which is also changing how these markets are utilized, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture.
The growth of the industry has been rapid, with monthly trading volume increasing from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, and active wallets more than tripling in six months. Projections estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a long-term path toward $1 trillion, emphasizing the need for improved access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points for users to discover and interact with markets in real-time.