Veteran commodities trader Peter Brandt forecasts that bitcoin will rally to $250,000 in 2029, but this growth will be preceded by a lengthy bottoming process that could persist until September 2026. This prediction aligns with bitcoin's historical four-year mining reward halving cycle, which has significantly influenced traders' projections.
Typically, bitcoin's bull runs have peaked approximately 16 to 18 months after the quadrennial mining reward halving, followed by a year-long bear market. New uptrends usually begin 12 to 18 months ahead of the next halving.
If this cycle holds, the bear market that started in October 2025 should reach its bottom around October 2026, and then a new uptrend should commence, potentially reaching $250,000 in late 2029, roughly 18 months after the April 2028 halving. Brandt stated, 'I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026. It is not necessary for the recent low to be penetrated.
We could get a rally and then chop sideways to down.' Peter Brandt, a trader with nearly five decades of experience, began his career in the 1970s trading traditional assets such as agricultural commodities, metals, and currencies. His view differs from the consensus among crypto analysts, who believe that the downtrend that began with the October peak near $126,000 ended in early February around $60,000, and that the subsequent rally marks the start of a new uptrend. Bitcoin has rallied over 25% to $80,300 since early February.
Brandt's forecast of no bottom until later this year does not necessarily imply a deeper downtrend that pushes prices below the February low. Instead, prices could move in a choppy pattern of rallies and pullbacks before eventually forming a bottom. Brandt stressed that his projection depends entirely on the market continuing to follow its historical rhythm, and if price action deviates, he is prepared to reassess rather than defend a broken thesis.