A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated to take place in June, potentially drawing interest away from crypto assets. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, seeking to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would not only be the largest stock market debut in history but also more than 2.5 times larger than Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
Furthermore, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the former targeting a Q4 listing at a valuation near $1 trillion and the latter aiming for an October debut that could raise over $60 billion. If all three companies reach the public market on schedule, they would collectively pull in over $240 billion from June through year-end, a figure that exceeds every venture-backed US IPO combined since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates. This massive capital pull could have a significant impact on the crypto market, as it sits in the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of what leaves is the same capital that would otherwise bid up higher-beta assets, including crypto. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, is also a significant factor, as it is money that will not be bidding on memecoins, altcoins, or bitcoin itself. Additionally, SpaceX holds 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million in Coinbase Prime custody, making its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. However, a bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.