The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a period of stagnation for Bitcoin, with minimal movement, as other major cryptocurrencies and oil prices experience significant fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability persists despite Brent crude oil surpassing $111 per barrel, driven by reports of an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as indicated by President Donald Trump. Iran's situation has been described as a 'State of Collapse' by Trump, with the country potentially considering an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
In contrast to Bitcoin's stability, other major cryptocurrencies such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. The exception is dogecoin, which has seen a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset.
According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. Ebtikar notes that the supply overhang has dissipated, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He believes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than widely thought, with its sensitivity primarily driven by broader volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to exit the market.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March would break, potentially leading to further downside. A reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February.
The upcoming Fed rate decision, followed by the ECB's decision, and the US equity market's sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about artificial intelligence capital expenditure, have contributed to the uncertainty. Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours, while Brent crude continues to fluctuate near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be watching whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a fresh leg of selling is triggered.
Conversely, if the assessment is incorrect, $75,000 may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as expected.