Research suggests that a small group of traders is dominating prediction markets, with an even smaller subgroup reaping the majority of the rewards. A recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs found that on Polymarket, less than 1% of wallets are capturing around half of all profits in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for approximately 50% of gains, translating to around $8 million in profits. This data reinforces the notion that a small minority drives price movements, while an even smaller minority retains the majority of the profits.
The report highlights that this concentration of wealth does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, but rather that some traders possess greater sophistication, capital, or speed in responding to information. However, the scale of the imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group of advantaged traders and the broader participant base. The study also identified signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
Solidus Labs' findings are based on verifiable on-chain data, but the firm's sales pitch for its surveillance platform, HALO, should be considered when interpreting the results.