Crypto Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amidst Bearish Undertones

By Omkar Godbole (all times ET unless otherwise stated) The cryptocurrency market experienced a surge on Monday, driven by anticipation of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has boosted risk appetite across the board. Bitcoin rose to nearly $92,000, representing a 3% increase over the past 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indexes saw gains of approximately 3.5%. However, bulls should exercise caution due to several warning signs. Firstly, the expected rate cut is largely seen as a foregone conclusion, with the focus now on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's forward guidance and potential indications of further cuts in 2026. Some market observers are betting against aggressive monetary easing, as evidenced by the rising 10-year yield ahead of the meeting, suggesting bond traders are expecting a hawkish tone. Momentum also appears to be leaning bearish. The CoinDesk Bitcoin Trend Index indicates a strong downtrend, with the equivalent index for ether not far behind. These indices turned bearish in mid-November, accurately predicting the subsequent price decline. Fund flows do not suggest a strong buying signal either. According to SoSoValue, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $87.77 million last week, while spot ether ETFs saw outflows of $65.59 million. "Despite the market's constructive underlying trends, with large wallets accumulating and exchange supply at historic lows, the market remains sensitive to political and macroeconomic developments this week," noted Timothy Misir, a research analyst at BRN. Misir warned that a hawkish Fed cut, significant ETF outflows, or a re-acceleration of exchange inflows, as well as data that undermines rate-cut expectations, could negatively impact the market. Volatility in the broader market should also be monitored, as token unlocks for CONX, APT, STRK, CHEEL, LINEA, and BB, each valued over $5 million, are scheduled for the next seven days, according to the LondonCryptoClub newsletter service. In traditional markets, gold's rally has stalled around $4,200 per ounce. Remain vigilant! Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. Key Events to Watch: For a comprehensive list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead". Token Events: For a comprehensive list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead". Conferences: For a comprehensive list of events this week, refer to CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead". Market Movements: Bitcoin Statistics: Technical Analysis: Crypto Equities: Crypto Treasury Companies: ETF Flows: Spot BTC ETFs: Spot ETH ETFs: Source: Farside Investors Overnight Developments