A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as cryptocurrencies. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, seeking to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would not only be the largest stock market debut in history but also more than 2.5 times larger than Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
Furthermore, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the combined capital raise of the three companies potentially exceeding $240 billion from June through year-end, surpassing every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. The significant capital pull may lead to a compression of liquidity in assets outside of these new listings, including cryptocurrencies. As bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the rotation of speculative capital out of equities and into these IPOs could negatively impact crypto prices.
Historical parallels, such as the Coinbase listing in 2021, also suggest that institutional milestones can mark the beginning of a downturn rather than an upswing. The upcoming SpaceX IPO, with its significant retail allocation and material bitcoin position, will be a key test for crypto markets and their ability to decouple from broader risk-on flows.