The current bitcoin price of $79,854.07 has not yet reached its lowest point, and achieving a new all-time high this year is unlikely, according to Michael Terpin, an early bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin believes the price needs to fall to $57,000 by October before it can begin to rise. 'Before a bull market for bitcoin can be called, the price needs to break back above $100,000 and no support anywhere near has manifested,' Terpin said, describing the current market as 'very much still in a bitcoin fall.' Terpin, often referred to as the 'crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, founded Transform Group, one of the first PR firms focused on blockchain companies, and BitAngels, a crypto angel investor group.
His bearish outlook contrasts with the consensus among analysts that the February low around $60,000 marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run. Most bullish analysts cited renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and the oil price spike as part of their outlook. In an interview, Terpin said the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours, with the high price of oil being a factor, which is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle. Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been seen but disagrees with the timeline.
Fernandes believes the market may not have fully capitulated yet, as historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point more toward a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating somewhere around $57,000. Fernandes added that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, and that liquidity conditions remain tight, and risk assets broadly are still adjusting to a higher-for-longer rate environment. The author and entrepreneur also said bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a view disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks the 'Crypto Godfather' is being overly bearish.
Greenspan believes there is still room for growth this year, given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, making a new all-time high plausible. AdLunam's Fernandes also said market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that sentiment hasn't reached the kind of extreme pessimism that typically marks cycle lows.