The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a mix of trends, with bitcoin showing minimal movement. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week.
This stability occurred despite Brent crude oil prices exceeding $111 per barrel, triggered by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has reportedly described its current situation as a "State of Collapse," according to Trump's statement on Truth Social on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Tehran has indicated that it might accept an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% over the week to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625.
However, dogecoin bucked this trend, rising 5.5% over the week to $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to show gains over the past seven days. As a result, bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted in a statement that bitcoin's relative stability suggests a shift in the market structure.
"The excess supply has been absorbed, and sellers who were spooked by macroeconomic shifts or quantum concerns have already exited the market. This has resulted in a much thinner sell-side market than we saw just a few months ago," Ebtikar explained to CoinDesk via email.
"Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policies than people assume. Its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader market volatility, and since we are currently in a quieter trading range, there is no immediate reason for investors to exit the market," Ebtikar added. From a technical perspective, the key levels are more pronounced.
Analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as the critical level where the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. If bitcoin reverses course and moves back toward $80,000 from current levels, it would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected the cryptocurrency since February. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditures, although Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude prices have fluctuated between gains and losses but remain elevated near $111 due to the blockade reports, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds up against the next macroeconomic shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered. If the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level could be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget may play out as expected.