Roundhill Investments is poised to introduce the first US exchange-traded funds tied to prediction markets, with the launch of six funds that track the potential control of the White House, Senate, and House by Democrats or Republicans. According to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these funds will be listed on May 5, as confirmed by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart. The funds in question are the Roundhill Democratic President ETF, Republican President ETF, Democratic Senate ETF, Republican Senate ETF, Democratic House ETF, and Republican House ETF.
The House and Senate products are linked to the outcome of the November 3, 2026 elections, while the presidential products are tied to the November 7, 2028, election. These funds achieve exposure through swap agreements referencing binary event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated markets, which settle at $1 if the specified outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.
The prospectus includes a warning that if the targeted party fails to win, the fund will lose nearly all of its value. Roundhill has no plans to terminate the funds after settlement; instead, once the market prices a winner above $0.995 or below $0.005 for five consecutive trading days, the fund treats the outcome as decided and transitions into the next cycle. For the midterm funds, this means exposure to the 2028 House and Senate elections, while the presidential funds will shift focus to the 2032 presidential race.
The prospectus also notes that if the market's prediction is later proven incorrect, there will be no recourse for shareholders. Other companies, such as Bitwise and GraniteShares, have filed similar proposals, with Bitwise's funds terminating shortly after each outcome is determined, whereas GraniteShares, like Roundhill, will roll into the next election. While political event contracts are already traded on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, the introduction of ETFs could expand access by allowing these contracts to be held in standard brokerage accounts and certain retirement accounts.
This development comes after the CFTC withdrew a proposal that would have banned political event contracts, although state regulators in several states continue to challenge these contracts in court. Roundhill has also filed to list non-political prediction market ETFs tied to the possibility of a US recession, as flagged by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.