According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trades, but about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 proposal introduces event trading with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes notes that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit from platform activity. This sets Hyperliquid apart from competitors like Polymarket and Kalshi, which do not offer similar benefits.
Hayes believes that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, low trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure. The ability for users to own HYPE tokens and directly profit from their usage of HIP-4 is a key advantage.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. This contrast makes Kalshi the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, as users can trade event outcomes but have no path to the platform's upside. The structural split between the three platforms is clear: Hyperliquid ties usage to a token, Polymarket is moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely prevents it altogether.