The resurgence of the Iran war premium has taken a toll on the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has fallen 2.1% to $75,633, while ether has dropped 3.4% to $2,244. This decline is attributed to the significant increase in Brent crude oil prices, which have reached a four-year high of $126.41 per barrel. The surge in oil prices is largely driven by reports that President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran, which has led to a war premium being factored into the price of oil.
As a result, the cryptocurrency market is feeling the effects of this war premium, with bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies experiencing a decline in value. The global benchmark for oil has been on a nine-day winning streak, with prices increasing by over 100% year-to-date. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market has seen a decline, with bitcoin down 3% on the week and ether down 4.4%. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as XRP and Solana, have also experienced a decline in value.
The only exception is dogecoin, which has seen a 3.8% increase in value over the past 24 hours. The decline in the cryptocurrency market is also attributed to the decline in risk assets across the board, with the Nasdaq 100 futures and MSCI's Asia Pacific share index experiencing a decline. The dollar has gained value, while bonds have slid, due to the surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed.
The 10-year Treasury yield has held near its highest level since July, while Japan's 10-year notes have reached their highest level since 1997. The resilience of bitcoin is being tested, as it has held a tight band between $74,000 and $78,000 despite the increase in oil prices.
However, the cumulative damage is starting to show, with bitcoin now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 requires the war premium to unwind. Lillo believes that a resolution to the Middle East conflict and a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel are necessary for bitcoin to break above $80,000.
He also flagged a possible scenario where the Trump administration lifts the blockade in coming days and frames it as a response to 'positive steps by Iran' to engineer a relief rally. This could trigger an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.