As April comes to a close, bitcoin is adopting a cautious approach, trading at $79,854.07. However, historical seasonal patterns suggest that any downturns may be short-lived, potentially paving the way for a renewed upward trajectory in the coming weeks. Since 2013, May has historically been a favorable month for the largest cryptocurrency, with it seeing gains in seven out of the past 13 years. The average return of approximately 8% may not be as impressive as the stronger months of October and November, but it still indicates a positive bias.
Following April's roughly 10% gain, the seasonal pattern suggests that the broader uptrend could remain intact, supported by similar bullish seasonality in the S&P 500, which is currently hovering near record highs. Back-to-back net monthly inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) indicate strong institutional demand, further supporting the bullish case, with these ETFs pulling in over $1.8 billion this month after March's $1.32 billion. Nonetheless, traders must keep a watchful eye on bond markets, where rising yields pose a challenge to risk assets. Analysts warn that despite the positive outlook, macro headwinds could cap near-term upside, and a global economic flare-up, potentially triggered by the Iran war and energy market disruption, could have a negative impact on the global economy in May.
The technical charts also show a bullish crossover, where the 50-day average is poised to move above the 100-day average, which could signal strengthening short-term momentum and potential further upside if sustained.