A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO expected to draw significant interest and potentially divert liquidity away from crypto markets. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, which would make it the largest stock market debut in history if it prices near that level in June.
This massive capital raise, combined with planned listings from OpenAI and Anthropic, could exceed $240 billion and surpass the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The potential impact on crypto markets is significant, as bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles.
When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may also leave the crypto market, potentially triggering a downturn. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
However, the 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO and the company's significant bitcoin holdings may also influence crypto flows. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows and hold up through the roadshow window in May and June.