The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin remaining steady at just under $77,000 on Wednesday during Asian trading hours, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This tight range is observed despite Brent crude oil exceeding $111 per barrel, triggered by a Wall Street Journal report stating that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has expressed its distress, with President Trump claiming on Truth Social that the country is in a state of collapse, while Tehran has hinted at accepting an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Other major cryptocurrencies such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB have experienced significant losses, with declines of 2.6%, 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.3% respectively. In contrast, dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to show positive growth. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital rotation into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative stability is indicative of a shift in market structure.
Ebtikar notes that the supply overhang has dissipated, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He believes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by wider market volatility.
With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell. From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level that, if breached, could lead to further downside.
Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin since February. The upcoming Fed rate decision, followed by the ECB's decision, and the US equity market's sell-off due to growing skepticism about artificial intelligence capital expenditure, may influence the market. The price of Brent crude has fluctuated but remains elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock, and if Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered.