According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just providing cheaper trading options. Hyperliquid is set to introduce a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under its HIP-4 proposal, which Hayes believes will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to the platform's large user base, low trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure. The HYPE token allows users to directly profit from their usage of HIP-4, setting it apart from competitors like Polymarket and Kalshi.
While Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, and premarket contracts are trading at around $14, implying a fully-diluted valuation of $14 billion, HYPE's FDV is approximately $38 billion. Hayes' argument also highlights geographical differences, with Polymarket facing regulatory constraints in Asia, while Hyperliquid's user base is heavily skewed towards the region. In contrast, Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, with no token incentives, making it the most direct test of Hayes' thesis.
The structural split between the three platforms is clear, with Hyperliquid tying usage to a token, Polymarket potentially moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it altogether.