The resurgence of the Iran war premium has negatively impacted the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has slid 2.1% to $75,633, marking a 3% decline over the week, while Brent crude oil surged 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel, its highest level in four years, due to an Axios report stating that President Donald Trump is scheduled to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran. This report also mentioned that the US Central Command has requested the deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, which would be the first time such weapons have been used in combat by American forces.
The ongoing conflict has resulted in the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, severely disrupting the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products. As a result, a war premium has been factored into the price of Brent crude, which has seen a significant increase of over 100% year-to-date.
The global benchmark has now experienced a nine-day winning streak, its longest since May 2022, with prices up over 100% year-to-date. Other cryptocurrencies such as ether, XRP, and Solana have also seen declines, with ether dropping 3.4% to $2,244, XRP falling 2.1% to $1.37, and Solana losing 2.6% to $82.62.
The only notable exception is dogecoin, which saw a 3.8% increase in value. Risk assets across the board are experiencing losses, with Nasdaq 100 futures giving back earlier gains and European equities poised for a 1% decline at the open. The US dollar has strengthened, while bond prices have slid due to the surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed stance. The 10-year Treasury yield remains near its highest level since July, while Japan's 10-year notes have reached their highest level since 1997.
Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the conflict is being put to the test, having held a narrow range between $74,000 and $78,000 throughout April despite the significant increase in oil prices and the ongoing conflict. Each escalation in the conflict has resulted in a sharper decline in bitcoin's value, with the cumulative damage beginning to manifest. Bitcoin is now $50,000 below its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 would require the war premium to dissipate.
Lillo stated that bitcoin's attempt to break the $80,000 level would necessitate a resolution to the Middle East conflict, resulting in a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel. He also flagged a possible scenario where the Trump administration lifts the naval blockade of Iran in the coming days, framing it as a response to 'positive steps' by Iran, which could trigger a relief rally and potentially propel bitcoin above $80,000.