As April comes to a close, bitcoin is adopting a cautious stance, trading at $79,740.66. However, historical data suggests that any downturns may be short-lived, potentially paving the way for a renewed upward trend in the coming weeks. Since 2013, May has been a favorable month for the cryptocurrency, with seven out of 13 years seeing gains. The average return of around 8% indicates a positive bias, albeit less impressive than in months like October and November.
Following April's 10% gain, the seasonal pattern suggests the broader uptrend could remain intact, supported by similar bullish seasonality in the S&P 500. Back-to-back net monthly inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds, totaling over $1.8 billion this month, indicate strong institutional demand and support the bullish case.
Nonetheless, traders must monitor bond markets, where rising yields pose a headwind to risk assets. Analysts warn that despite the bullish outlook, macro headwinds and potential global economic flare-ups could cap near-term upside. The impending crossover of the 50-day average above the 100-day average may signal further upside, but its record is mixed, particularly in bear markets.