As the Asian trading week commences, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $80,000 level, a milestone not achieved since late January. According to CryptoQuant analysts, this resurgence is driven by cautious buyers, as reflected in both positioning data and on-chain metrics. Over the past few weeks, ETF inflows and leveraged long positions have fueled a steady ascent, yet the underlying demand remains inconsistent.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $2.7 billion over the past three weeks, elevating total net assets above $100 billion and providing a notable source of real-money support. Furthermore, a recent Telegram note from market maker FlowDesk indicated a growing appetite for scaling into leveraged long positions, particularly in prominent assets like Ether and Near Protocol's NEAR, underscoring the role of fast money in driving price increases.
Nevertheless, on-chain data suggests that the rally lacks broad confirmation. A CryptoQuant report released on April 30 found that Bitcoin's April surge was driven solely by growth in perpetual futures demand, while spot demand contracted throughout the rally.
This divergence, where leverage expands without corresponding underlying buying, has historically been associated with fragile price gains that tend to reverse once positioning unwinds. Prediction markets convey a similar narrative, with Polymarket traders assigning a 56% probability to Bitcoin reaching $85,000 this month, but only a 23% probability of reaching $90,000, indicating expectations of a gradual, rather than explosive, price increase. Collectively, these signals point to a rally fueled by inflows and leverage, but lacking broad conviction, suggesting that further upside is possible, yet the move remains vulnerable to any slowdown in inflows or shift in positioning, conditions that have historically led to sharp reversals rather than sustained advances.