Veteran trader Peter Brandt forecasts that bitcoin will experience a significant rally to $250,000 by 2029, but this will occur after the market undergoes a lengthy bottoming process that could potentially last until September 2026. This prediction aligns with bitcoin's historical four-year mining reward halving cycle, which has been a reliable indicator for traders. Typically, bitcoin's bull runs have peaked approximately 16 to 18 months after the quadrennial mining reward halving, followed by a year-long bear market.

New uptrends then usually begin 12 to 18 months prior to the next halving. This pattern was evident in the most recent cycle, with bitcoin reaching its peak in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving.

If this cycle holds, the bear market that started then should bottom out around October 2026, and a new uptrend should begin, potentially reaching $250,000 in late 2029, roughly 18 months after the April 2028 halving. Brandt stated, "I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026. It is not necessary for the recent low to be penetrated. We could get a rally and then chop sideways to down.

Worst case would be a move back into the lower green banana peel which would be into the 50s, maybe high 40s. Then blast off for $250k and a high in late 2029." Peter Brandt is a seasoned commodities trader with a career spanning nearly five decades, starting in the 1970s in the futures markets. He initially traded traditional assets such as agricultural commodities, metals, and currencies, long before the emergence of modern electronic trading or digital assets.

Brandt's viewpoint differs from the consensus among crypto analysts, who argue that the downtrend that began with the October peak near $126,000 ended in early February around $60,000, and that the rally since then marks the start of a new uptrend. Since early February, bitcoin has experienced a significant rally of over 25% to $80,300, according to CoinDesk data.

It's worth noting that Brandt's forecast of no bottom until later this year does not necessarily imply a deeper downtrend that pushes prices below the February low. As he has noted, prices could instead move in a choppy pattern of rallies and pullbacks before eventually forming a bottom. Brandt emphasized that his projection depends entirely on the market continuing to follow its historical rhythm.

If price action deviates, he's prepared to reassess rather than defend a broken thesis. "As long as the market follows the script I will stay with my projections. If at some point the price discovery moves off script I will be forced to revise all my thinking.

I will NOT be dogmatic about it as some are," he said.