In approximately six weeks, one of the largest stock market debuts in history is set to take place, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This massive capital raise, combined with the upcoming IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, is projected to exceed $240 billion, surpassing the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The impact of this enormous capital pull on the crypto market is a significant concern, as bitcoin and other digital assets are closely tied to the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. As a result, the influx of capital into these IPOs could lead to a reduction in liquidity for crypto, potentially causing a downturn in the market.
According to Alex Good, founder of crypto AI project Post Fiat, the SpaceX IPO could mark a bearish turn for equities, drawing parallels to the Solana $300 moment. Furthermore, the correlation between crypto and traditional assets, such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500, has tightened over the past two cycles, suggesting that a rotation out of equities could have a negative impact on crypto. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in April 2021, which coincided with the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale, as institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines.
SpaceX's IPO, with its 30% retail allocation and material bitcoin position, will be a significant test for the crypto market, as it will compete with crypto for investment capital. The outcome will depend on whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows and maintain its value in the face of this massive capital raise.