Bitcoin's Ascent to $80,000 Faces Hurdles as Macro Trends Signal Caution

Following a peak above $79,000, Bitcoin has retreated to $76,500, pausing its rally from the late-March lows below $65,000. However, recent economic data may hinder a rapid recovery. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index has plummeted to a record low of 49.8, primarily due to inflation concerns related to the Iran conflict. Additionally, inflation expectations have surged, with the one-year gauge rising to 4.8% in April from 3.8% in the previous month, and long-term expectations increasing to 3.5%, the highest since October 2025. This sharp rise in inflation expectations could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to signal interest-rate cuts, potentially capping gains in BTC and other risk assets. Analysts note that the Fed closely monitors these expectations to prevent inflation psychology from becoming unanchored. With the Fed expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate and potential rate hikes in the eurozone and the U.K. on the horizon, traders are exercising caution. The crypto market is also keeping a close eye on sustained ETF inflows to support spot BTC prices. Meanwhile, coordinated efforts to mitigate the KelpDAO exploit have helped DeFi tokens perform relatively well, with the CoinDesk DeFi Select Index gaining 0.5% over 24 hours. Bitcoin's hourly price chart shows a dive out of an ascending trendline, with prices trading below their 50- and 200-hour averages, indicating uptrend exhaustion and potential for a deeper price pullback.