According to Michael Terpin, a renowned early bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich, the bitcoin price has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his involvement in the industry since 2013, believes that before a bull market can be declared, the price must break above $100,000, which he does not foresee happening anytime soon. He anticipates the bottom will be reached at $57,000 sometime in October.
This prediction contradicts the consensus among analysts that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Most analysts point to renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and the oil price spike as indicators of a bull run.
However, Terpin argues that the rejection of the psychological barrier of $80,000 during Asian trading hours, influenced by the high price of oil, is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation. Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, agrees that the bottom has not yet been seen but disagrees with Terpin's timeline, stating that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Fernandes notes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not occurred yet.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals point towards a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000. He predicts this will happen in October, similar to the timeline last year when BTC first dipped below $100,000, followed by the October 10 crash, which saw $19 billion in leveraged positions wiped out. Fernandes adds that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and risk assets adjusting to a higher-for-longer rate environment. Terpin also stated that bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a prediction that crypto market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, Mati Greenspan, disagrees with, calling Terpin's take 'overly bearish'.
Greenspan believes there is still room for growth this year, given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, making a new all-time high plausible. Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.