The consensus among retail investors is that bitcoin's price will exceed $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning the year-to-date return positive. However, it remains uncertain whether the market will follow this trend. A recent analysis by Santiment, which monitored thousands of social media posts across various platforms, revealed a significant bias towards a bitcoin price above $90,000.
Mentions of lower price ranges, such as $50,000-$59,000, are being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt. The crowd is expecting the gradual recovery from the February low of around $60,000 to continue into May, fueled by the resurgence of exchange-traded funds and bitcoin's resilience in the face of recent geopolitical and market challenges. According to Santiment, this widespread bullishness is a reason to exercise caution, as overly optimistic social sentiment can often precede a bearish market performance. This concept is echoed by traditional market contrarian traders, who use sentiment gauges like the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index to inform their decisions.
Notably, bitcoin's recovery rally has already experienced a setback, with prices retreating to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving the question of whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a larger reversal.