As April comes to a close, bitcoin is adopting a cautious stance at $80,040.63, yet historical trends suggest that any downturns may be short-lived, potentially clearing the path for an upward surge in the coming weeks. Since 2013, May has historically been a favorable month for the largest cryptocurrency, with seven out of 13 years seeing gains.
Although the average return of approximately 8% is less impressive compared to months like October and November, it indicates a positive inclination. Following April's 10% gain, the seasonal pattern implies that the broader uptrend could remain intact, supported by similar bullish trends in the S&P 500, which is currently near record highs. The back-to-back net monthly inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds, totaling over $1.8 billion this month after March's $1.32 billion, demonstrate strong institutional demand and bolster the bullish case.
However, traders must remain vigilant about bond markets, where rising yields pose a challenge to risk assets. Analysts caution that despite the positive outlook, risks such as a global economic flare-up and rising bond yields could impact bitcoin's performance.
The impending crossover of the 50-day average above the 100-day average on the chart, known as a bullish crossover, may signal strengthening short-term momentum and potential further upside, although its record is mixed, particularly during bear markets.