The alleged $400,000 insider bet by a Green Beret on a Venezuela raid initially seemed like an isolated incident, but new findings indicate it may be just the tip of the iceberg. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a nonprofit research organization, conducted an exhaustive analysis of over 435,000 settled Polymarket contracts between January 2021 and mid-March 2026, totaling $54.4 billion in cumulative volume.
The results show that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have success rates that defy explanation by skill or chance alone, with some instances exceeding 50%. Typically, such 'longshot' bets succeed around 14% of the time across political markets.
The authors of the report suggest that markets related to government policies, including military and defense, are more susceptible to information asymmetries due to the difficulty in forecasting outcomes using publicly available information. This creates an environment where a small group of traders can consistently outperform others, not just by reacting faster, but by possessing more knowledge. Polymarket has emphasized its market surveillance efforts and cooperation with the Department of Justice, particularly in the Venezuela case, and prohibits trading on confidential information. However, the report's findings contribute to a growing body of evidence pointing to a more significant issue.
A working paper from the London Business School and Yale found that approximately 3% of traders drive most price discovery on Polymarket, while separate analysis by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs revealed that profits are highly concentrated, with less than 1% of wallets capturing about half of all gains. The ACDC report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, where Polymarket listed date-specific contracts on the likelihood of a strike. Despite the operation being designed to avoid detection, a small number of traders placed large, well-timed bets on the outcome, with eight wallets sharing about $1.8 million in profits.
The pattern of winning longshot bets outnumbering losing ones in the hours leading up to market resolution, particularly in markets tied to military decisions, suggests that some participants may be operating with information advantages. The report recommends identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on the granularity of contracts. Ultimately, the report concludes by calling for an informed debate on whether the public should be allowed to bet on these outcomes at all.