Veteran trader Peter Brandt forecasts that bitcoin will experience a significant rally to $250,000 in 2029, following a lengthy bottoming process that could persist until September 2026. This projection is grounded in the historical context of bitcoin's four-year mining reward halving cycle, which has consistently influenced traders' predictions. Typically, bitcoin's bull runs have peaked approximately 16 to 18 months after the quadrennial mining reward halving, followed by a year-long bear market.
Subsequently, new uptrends usually commence 12 to 18 months prior to the next halving. This pattern was evident in the most recent cycle, with bitcoin reaching its peak in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving. If this cycle holds, the bear market that began then should reach its bottom around October 2026, and a new uptrend should emerge, potentially reaching $250,000 in late 2029, approximately 18 months after the April 2028 halving.
Brandt remarked, "I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026. It is not necessary for the recent low to be penetrated. We could experience a rally and then move sideways or downward. The worst-case scenario would be a decline into the lower green zone, potentially into the 50s or high 40s, before surging to $250,000 and reaching a high in late 2029." As a seasoned commodities trader with nearly five decades of experience, Brandt's career began in the 1970s, trading traditional assets such as agricultural commodities, metals, and currencies, long before the emergence of modern electronic trading or digital assets.
Brandt's perspective diverges from the consensus among crypto analysts, who argue that the downtrend that commenced with the October peak near $126,000 ended in early February around $60,000, and that the subsequent rally marks the beginning of a new uptrend. Since early February, bitcoin has experienced a significant rally of over 25% to $80,300, according to CoinDesk data. Notably, Brandt's forecast of no bottom until later this year does not necessarily imply a deeper downtrend that would push prices below the February low.
Instead, prices could fluctuate in a choppy pattern of rallies and pullbacks before ultimately forming a bottom. Brandt emphasized that his projection is contingent upon the market continuing to follow its historical rhythm, and if price action deviates, he is prepared to reassess rather than defend a broken thesis. "As long as the market follows the script, I will maintain my projections. If the price discovery deviates from the script, I will be forced to revise my thinking.
I will not be dogmatic about it, as some are," he stated.