A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as cryptocurrencies. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019, making it the largest stock market debut in history. With OpenAI and Anthropic also planning to go public, the combined capital raised could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000.
This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially impacting the crypto market. As crypto sits in the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, the outflow of speculative capital from equities could lead to a decline in crypto prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, could also divert funds away from crypto.
Furthermore, SpaceX's material bitcoin position, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a disclosed bitcoin position under the new fair-value accounting rules. The impact of SpaceX's IPO on crypto will be visible in the coming weeks, with a potential test of whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows.