According to Michael Terpin, a renowned early bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich, the bitcoin price has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his significant involvement in the industry since 2013, believes that for a bull market to be declared, the price must surpass $100,000, which he thinks is unlikely to happen soon. He forecasts that the price will hit its bottom at around $57,000 in October.
This prediction is in contrast to the views of many analysts who believe that the February low of around $60,000 marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Terpin's bearish outlook is based on his analysis of the bitcoin cycle, which he thinks is typical at this stage, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation.
While some analysts, like Jason Fernandes, agree that the bottom has not yet been seen, they disagree with Terpin's timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which he thinks has not occurred yet. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point towards a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000. He predicts this will happen in October, similar to the timeline last year when BTC first dipped below $100,000.
Other analysts, like Mati Greenspan, disagree with Terpin's bearish outlook, thinking it is overly pessimistic and that an all-time high is still possible this year given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest. Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that there may still be one more leg down before a sustainable base is formed.