The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement despite significant activity in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, given that Brent crude oil has surpassed $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has described its current situation as a 'State of Collapse,' according to Trump's statement on Truth Social, while Tehran has indicated a willingness to accept an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625.
In contrast, dogecoin saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to post gains over the week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness suggests a shift in market structure. 'The supply overhang has finally been absorbed, and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago,' Ebtikar noted in an email to CoinDesk.
'Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits,' Ebtikar added.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a breakdown could lead to further downside. Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February.
The Federal Reserve's rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched, particularly as the US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure. Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices have been volatile, oscillating between gains and losses, but remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until a fresh catalyst triggers a new wave of selling. If the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as expected.