The general consensus among retail investors is that bitcoin's current price of $80,281.18 will exceed $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning this year's losses into gains. However, it is uncertain whether the market will follow this trend. Analytics firm Santiment analyzed thousands of social media posts across various platforms, including X, Reddit, and Telegram, and discovered that the majority of posts over the past week have expressed bullish sentiments, anticipating bitcoin's price to rise above $90,000.
mentions of the $50,000-$59,000 range are being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt. The crowd is expecting the recovery from the February low of around $60,000 to continue into May, which is understandable given the recent inflows into exchange-traded funds and bitcoin's resilience in the face of global conflicts, oil price surges, and DeFi hacks.
According to Santiment, this widespread optimism is a reason to be cautious, as overly bullish social sentiment can be a contrarian indicator of a potential bearish performance. In fact, the firm suggests that price predictions can often be a reliable way to predict the opposite outcome. This approach is similar to that of contrarian traders in traditional markets, who use sentiment gauges like the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index to inform their decisions. Interestingly, bitcoin's recovery rally has already stalled this week, with prices dropping to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving it unclear whether this is a temporary pause or the start of a broader reversal.