According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but about capturing the upside. The company's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is just the beginning.
Hayes argues that the real game-changer is the HYPE token, which allows users to profit directly from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid is poised to dominate the prediction market. The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion.
The geographic landscape also favors Hyperliquid, with a strong presence in Asia and no regulatory constraints. In contrast, Polymarket is rebuilding its US business with compliance at its core, while Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives.
The difference in approach makes Kalshi the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, as users can trade event outcomes but have no access to the platform's upside.