The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note has surged to 5%, its highest level since July 2025, prompting concerns among crypto analysts about the potential impact on bitcoin. This development, combined with elevated oil prices and rising long-term inflation expectations, is pushing bond yields higher and making them more attractive to investors. As a result, capital may flow out of risk assets like bitcoin, which is already under pressure due to an uptick in the Dollar Index. The rise in bond yields typically hurts risk assets, including bitcoin and technology stocks, as investors seek the relatively safe and high returns offered by government bonds.
According to experts, the current market conditions, characterized by financial tightening and a strong dollar, are likely to continue pressuring crypto valuations. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady, combined with internal dissent among its officials, has also contributed to the rise in bond yields and expectations of higher interest rates.
Furthermore, the surge in oil prices, which has lifted inflation expectations, is also playing a role in the increase in bond yields. Overall, the current macroeconomic environment remains a challenge for bitcoin and other risk assets.