A new report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket indicates a significant shift in the prediction market landscape, transforming from occasional event-based bets to platforms driven by daily user interaction. The report highlights a notable increase in trading volume on Polymarket, reaching $25.7 billion in March, attributed to a change in user behavior.
An analysis of 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter shows users are participating more frequently and across a broader range of markets, spanning crypto, sports, and politics. The growth is primarily driven by the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter, indicating the market's reliance on retail participants. Instead of making large, infrequent bets, users are now engaging in smaller, more regular trades. According to Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's chief operating officer, 'prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions.' The data suggests a behavioral shift, where the market is scaling with more frequent interactions rather than larger trades.
Crypto serves as the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity due to its continuous trading and familiar price movements. However, as users become more active, their participation expands to markets tied to real-world events. The report characterizes this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer solely driven by major events but are becoming continuous systems where users regularly track and respond to changing probabilities.
Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket, notes, 'as prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself.' The shift from episodic trading to continuous engagement is also changing how these markets are utilized, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis. The market has experienced rapid growth, with monthly trading volume increasing from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a potential long-term trajectory toward $1 trillion. As participation increases, the focus is shifting toward access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, facilitating user discovery and real-time interaction with markets.