A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, and its impact could be felt in the cryptocurrency market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019, making it the largest stock market debut in history. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with potential valuations of nearly $1 trillion and over $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raised by these companies could exceed $240 billion from June to the end of the year, surpassing the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the liquidity of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. As crypto assets are part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, a decrease in speculative capital in equities could lead to a decline in crypto prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto investments. Additionally, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin holding. The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining whether crypto can withstand the impact of these IPOs or if it will begin to decline as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription.