A recent study by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs has uncovered that a tiny fraction of traders on Polymarket are reaping the majority of the rewards, with less than 1% of wallets accounting for approximately half of all gains in key markets. The report, which analyzed data from December 2025 to February 2026, found that a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets captured around 50% of the profits, translating to roughly $8 million out of $16 million in total gains.
This discovery supports previous academic research suggesting that a small minority of traders drives most price movements, with a London Business School and Yale paper finding that about 3% of Polymarket traders are responsible for the majority of price discovery. The study highlights a significant divide between a small group of sophisticated traders and the broader base of participants, with the former operating with significant advantages in terms of capital, infrastructure, and execution strategies. Furthermore, the report identifies signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions, which could be indicative of incentive farming or manipulation.
The findings have significant implications for the market, suggesting that a structural imbalance exists between a small group of traders operating with significant advantages and the rest of the participants.