According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model.
Hayes believes that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which enables users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market. The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's potential token, which has an implied valuation of roughly $14 billion. Geographical constraints also play a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having a user base that skews towards the region.
In contrast, Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives, making it a direct test of Hayes' thesis. The structural split between the three platforms is clear, with Hyperliquid tying usage to a token, Polymarket potentially moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it altogether.