As April comes to a close, bitcoin is adopting a cautious stance at $78,348.72, yet historical seasonal patterns suggest that any downturns may be short-lived, potentially paving the way for an upward trajectory in the coming weeks. Since 2013, data indicates that May has been a favorable month for the largest cryptocurrency, with gains recorded in seven out of the past 13 years. Although the average return of approximately 8% is less remarkable compared to stronger months like October and November, it still implies a positive inclination. Following April's roughly 10% increase, the seasonal pattern suggests the broader uptrend could remain intact, supported by similar bullish seasonality in the S&P 500, which is already nearing record highs.
Back-to-back net monthly inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) totaling over $1.8 billion this month, following March's $1.32 billion, indicate robust institutional demand and bolster the bullish case. However, traders must remain vigilant regarding bond markets, where rising yields pose a challenge to risk assets. Analysts warn that despite broadly flat performance, macro headwinds may cap near-term upside, and the risk of a global economic flare-up, potentially triggered by the Iran war and energy market disruption, could impact the global economy in May.
The impending crossover of the 50-day average above the 100-day average on the chart may signal strengthening short-term momentum and potential further upside, although its record is mixed, particularly during bear markets.