The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high in 2026, according to Michael Terpin, an early investor in bitcoin and author of Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather', believes that before a bull market can commence, the price of bitcoin must break above $100,000, but notes that no support has been established near this level. He anticipates that the bottom of the market will be reached at $57,000 by October. Despite gaining over 10% in April, Terpin asserts that the market is still experiencing a downturn.
His view contrasts with the majority of analysts who believe that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Most analysts cited increased investment in US-listed spot ETFs and the resilience of bitcoin during the Iran conflict and oil price surge as reasons for their optimistic outlook. Terpin explained that the rejection of the psychological barrier of $80,000 during Asian trading hours on Monday was typical for this stage of the bitcoin cycle, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation.
Jason Fernandes, a market analyst, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Fernandes noted that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not occurred yet.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals point towards a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000. He predicts this will happen in October, similar to the timeline last year when BTC first dipped below $100,000, followed by the October 10 crash. Fernandes added that broader macro conditions could continue to affect risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and risk assets adjusting to a higher-for-longer rate environment.
Terpin also stated that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view disputed by Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst, who believes that the level of institutional adoption and growing interest makes a new all-time high plausible. Fernandes noted that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.