According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, not just reducing trading costs. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model.
Hayes argues that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market. The HYPE token allows users to directly profit from their usage of HIP-4. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives.
This contrast makes Kalshi the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, as users can trade event outcomes but have no path to the platform's upside. The structural split between the three platforms is clear: Hyperliquid ties usage to a token, Polymarket is moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely prevents it altogether.