The resurgence of the Iran war premium has had a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has slid 2.1% to $75,633, with a weekly decline of 3%, as Brent crude oil prices surged 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel - the highest level in four years. This significant increase in oil prices can be attributed to reports that President Trump is being briefed on potential military options against Iran. The deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, as requested by U.S.
Central Command, would mark the first time such weapons have been used in combat, further exacerbating the situation. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut down since the war began, severely limiting the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and other oil products.
As a result, a war premium has been factored into Brent crude oil prices, driving them up over 100% year-to-date. The global benchmark has been on a nine-day winning streak, the longest since May 2022, and is up over 100% year-to-date. Other cryptocurrencies, such as ether, XRP, and Solana, have also experienced significant declines, with ether dropping 3.4% to $2,244 and XRP falling 2.1% to $1.37.
The only notable exception is dogecoin, which has seen a 3.8% increase in value over the past 24 hours and a 10.1% increase over the past week. The surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed have led to a decline in risk assets across the board, with the Nasdaq 100 futures erasing earlier gains and European equities poised to drop 1% at the open.
The dollar has gained, while bonds have slid, as the increase in oil prices and a hawkish Fed have reduced demand for fixed income. The resilience of bitcoin is being tested, as it has held a tight band between $74,000 and $78,000 throughout April, despite the significant increase in oil prices. However, each escalation headline has produced a sharper drawdown, and the cumulative damage is starting to show.
Bitcoin is now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 will require the war premium to unwind. Lillo noted that bitcoin is attempting to break the key $80,000 level, which would necessitate a resolution to the Middle East conflict and a subsequent drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel. A possible scenario where the Trump administration lifts the blockade in the coming days, framing it as a response to "positive steps by Iran," could trigger a relief rally.
This, in turn, could lead to an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.