As April comes to a close, bitcoin is adopting a cautious stance at $80,160.14, but historical trends suggest that any downturns may be short-lived, potentially paving the way for an upward trajectory in the coming weeks. Since 2013, May has consistently proven to be a favorable month for the largest cryptocurrency, with seven out of 13 years yielding gains. Although the average return of approximately 8% is less impressive than other months, it still indicates a positive bias.
Following April's 10% increase, the broader uptrend is likely to remain intact, supported by similar seasonality in the S&P 500. Back-to-back net monthly inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds, totaling over $1.8 billion this month, demonstrate strong institutional demand and bolster the bullish case. However, traders must remain vigilant, as rising bond yields pose a headwind to risk assets.
Analysts warn that bitcoin's failure to sustain above $78,000 and its subsequent drift toward $75,000 suggests the market is digesting the 'higher-for-longer' signal, with the potential for range-bound trading rather than a breakout. Furthermore, the risk of a global economic flare-up, potentially triggered by the Iran war and energy market disruption, could have a negative impact on the global economy in May. In the midst of these uncertainties, the impending crossover of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages may signal strengthening short-term momentum and potential further upside for bitcoin.