A shift is underway in the prediction market landscape, transforming from isolated event-based betting to platforms driven by daily user interaction, according to a report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket. In March, Polymarket's trading volume reached $25.7 billion, with the report highlighting a deeper behavioral change. Data from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter shows users are participating more frequently and across a broader range of markets, including cryptocurrency, sports, and politics.
The growth is driven by the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 in the quarter, indicating the market is dominated by retail users. Instead of making large, infrequent bets, users are engaging in smaller trades more regularly.
Bitget Wallet's Chief Operating Officer, Alvin Kan, notes, 'Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions. What we're seeing is a behavioral shift: the market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades.' Cryptocurrency remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity, due to its continuous trading and familiar price movements.
However, as users become more active, participation shifts towards markets tied to real-world events. The report frames this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by major events but are becoming continuous systems where users return regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities. Elden Mirzoian, Director of Growth and Partnerships at Polymarket, comments, 'As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself. We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is also changing how these markets are used, with prices reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
The market has experienced rapid growth, with monthly trading volume increasing from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term path towards $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is moving towards access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, helping users discover markets and interact with them in real-time.