A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated in June, which could divert interest away from crypto. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Furthermore, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion from June to the end of the year, a figure that surpasses the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive capital pull could lead to a compression of liquidity in assets outside of these new listings, including crypto. As bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, a rotation of speculative capital from equities to IPO allocations could negatively impact crypto prices. The historical precedent of Coinbase's listing in April 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale.
The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, approximately $22 billion, could divert funds away from crypto, while the company's significant bitcoin holdings, worth around $600 million, make its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules. The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining whether crypto can withstand the impending IPOs or if it will be impacted by the shift in liquidity.