Research has shown that a small group of traders may be driving the markets on Polymarket, but an even smaller group is reaping most of the financial benefits. According to a recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs, the concentration of profits on Polymarket is extreme, with less than 1% of wallets accounting for roughly half of all gains in key markets.
Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets captured around 50% of the gains, translating to approximately $8 million out of $16 million in profits. This data supports previous academic findings that a small minority of traders drives most price discovery, with about 3% of Polymarket traders responsible for this phenomenon. The significant disparity in profits underscores the existence of a structural divide between a small, sophisticated group of traders and the broader base of participants. While this concentration does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, it suggests that some traders possess significant advantages, including greater capital depth, better infrastructure, and more effective execution strategies.
The report also notes signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. This phenomenon, which has no equivalent in traditional finance, may be driven by incentive farming rather than pure manipulation, particularly in anticipation of Polymarket's forthcoming POLY airdrop. The findings of this report are based on verifiable, on-chain data, but the framing of the results is part of a sales pitch for Solidus' surveillance platform, highlighting the need for surveillance infrastructure in prediction markets.